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Thursday 15 November 2012

Tsunami on Koh Samui?


In June I discussed the possibility of earthquakes in Koh Samui. This month I will look at the possibility of a tsunami affecting the island.
Since the catastrophic tsunami of 2004 which caused so much destruction around the Indian Ocean there have been many studies published on tsunamis, their generation and consequences. There has been nothing specific to Koh Samui that I could find but there are numerous studies relating the possibility of a tsunami in the Gulf of Thailand.

There are three principal causes cited for the promulgation of a tsunami, sub-sea earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions – the former being the most common. Earthquakes are the consequence of the movement of the tectonic plates moving against each other and similar movements in the fault lines which cross them. Major earthquakes commonly occur along the plate boundaries and in SE Asia the ones we are concerned with are the Sunda Trench to the west of Thailand and the Manila/Luzon Trench immediately to the west of the Philippines. Any tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Sunda Trench will not affect Koh Samui due to the land mass in between. All studies I have found re the Gulf of Thailand concern themselves with the effects of earthquakes in the Manila/Luzon Trench.

“PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ANALYSIS AND RISK TO COASTAL POPULATIONS IN THAILAND”
Follow the link for the full report but to summarize a seismic induced tsunami in the southern part of the Manila Trench in excess of 8.5Mw would likely lead to a tsunami entering the Gulf of Thailand once
in 650 years to a height of 2-3 metres. The worst affected areas would be the southern provinces.


This is demonstrated in the “2010Tsunami Simulations for Regional Sources in the South China and Adjoining Seas” study which proposed a catastrophic earthquake at the Luzon Trench, off the western shore of Luzon producing a tsunami affecting the Narathiwat and Pattani provinces in Thailand. It also addresses the effects of a sub-sea landslide off Borneo but generally the shallow nature (average 100m) would mitigate the magnitude of any tsunami entering the Gulf of Thailand and hence the affect on Koh Samui.
The study “Effect of Tsunamis generated in the Manila Trench on the Gulf of Thailand 2008” states “The Gulf of Thailand is affected by the diffraction of tsunamis around the southern part of Vietnam and Cambodia. The tsunami amplitude at the southernmost coastline is about 0.65 m for the Mw 9.0 earthquake. The current velocity in the Gulf of Thailand due to the Mw 9.0 earthquake is generally less than 0.2 m/s. “
“Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures Phase 2 –November 2009” stated “The simulations reveal further that tsunami threat due to seismic origin to the Gulf of Thailand is almost nonexistent.”

The conclusion is that , yes, Koh Samui could be affected by a tsunami, but that it would be small and not very powerful, probably less than one metre.


Tuesday 5 June 2012

Ko Samui Properties - Earthquakes in Koh Samui

The recent earthquakes on the west coast around Phuket caused a great deal of concern, not just because of the potential to create a tsunami but because of the damage an earthquake can instigate. Earthquakes themselves do not always create damage apart from where cracks appear in the ground. The main damage is to buildings and other structures such as bridges and elevated highways as well as causing landslides and rock falls. Phuket is susceptible due to its location on the west coast, not only because of its proximity to the Andaman fault line but also because it lies adjacent to the Khlong Marui fault line which runs immediately to the east of the island in a north-easterly direction and it was along this fault line that the most recent earthquake occurred. This fault line continues across the peninsular and runs between Koh Samui and Chumpon but is not considered by the Thai Department of Mineral Resources to be active in this region and the USGS records a slip rate of 0.01mm per year and earthquake probability of once in 127,000 years.


People live in earthquake areas all round the world and experience earthquakes on an almost daily basis. Japan and the West Coast of the USA are prime examples. Thailand is not regarded as being at major risk from earthquakes although there are many fault zones throughout the country, mostly in the north and north-west. There are no building codes in force to my knowledge which are relevant. However, I am attending a seminar in Bangkok in June which may tell me more. Nor is there advice on what to do in the event of an earthquake.

In San Francisco the telephone books have pages of information and advice on the actions to take and not to take in the event of an earthquake. One piece of advice was not to run out into the street as you may well be hit by falling debris. For more information of what to do in an earthquake follow this link. Buildings in California are built to very strict codes. I had a 35 storey office building in my management portfolio and during the Loma Prieta 6.9 earthquake in 1989 which destroyed the Marina District and a number of highways with 63 deaths, we only suffered USD 10,000 of damage with one window blown out and some minor cracking to walls requiring re-painting. This was due to correct design and construction which mitigated damage but it costs money and a balance must be sought between prudence and economic reality.

Koh Samui does not have a high earthquake risk. With one exception all the earthquakes in the region over the last ten years have been to the west of the peninsular. The one exception was on 7th October 2006, 42 km off Prachuap Khiri Khan, at a depth of 10km and magnitude 5.0 on the Richter scale. This would lie on the northern end of the Ranong fault line which runs in a south-westerly direction across the peninsular and to the west of Phuket.

As unpredictable as nature can be, it seems highly unlikely that Koh Samui will be affected by earthquakes except possibly at a great distance. However, the question remains – can Koh Samui be affected by a tsunami? That is the subject of next month’s Newsletter.

If you want to receive a copy of the full Newsletter each month, email me at hbonning@kosamuiproperties.com


Saturday 4 February 2012

Ko Samui Properties January 2012 Blog -- A New Year and New Office

Well as we enter 2012 may I wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous New Year. Another milestone for Ko Samui Properties – at the end of January, the ten year lease on our office comes to an end. Hard to believe we have been here that long and it would be easy to dwell on all the ups and downs we have experienced over that time, but better to move on and not relive the past. The present market conditions do not justify us staying where we are as we no longer need this amount of space. At the moment I am finalising the negotiations on a lease of a property in Bangrak from 1st February and will send out further details of the new location when these are complete. Whilst we have enjoyed our main road position it has become clear that such a prominent location is not necessary as the vast majority of people we do business with are in contact with us before they come to Samui. We rarely do business with people who walk through the door having found us by chance.

What do I see for 2012? Much of the same I suppose, but if you are considering buying this would be the time to move forward. Whilst this may not be the happiest time for sellers it certainly is for buyers and there are some excellent deals around and remember most prices are still negotiable. Last month saw average price reductions of 22% which indicates more and more sellers are adjusting to the realities of the market and presenting great opportunities for new buyers. Real Estate remains a solid asset and should rarely be looked on as a short term investment. We are of course subject to the world economy and certainly this has played a part in the availability of spare funds for second homes. However, there are people who have profited in one way or another during the present crisis and these people are here and looking for deals. Correctly priced properties will sell and we have seen more evidence of that over recent months in all price ranges.

A word of warning – and I really should have known better myself – do not give interviews to local Newspapers. I was asked to do that a few weeks ago and the first point I made was that I would wish to see the draft copy before publication to check for factual errors. This was agreed. The draft was subsequently sent to me and contained numerous errors requiring correction, which I made and returned the amended document. They then printed the original without amendment. I plagiarise their articles all the time, but you have to wonder just how accurate their reports really are. Whilst they are back on line, be aware that many of the reports they are publishing are 3-4 years out of date!

Ko Samui Properties December 2011 Blog - Face and its consequences

(Better late  than never)

There is a distinct lack of news this month to be trawled from the local and national papers. Neither The Nation or Bangkok Post had any relevant stories about Koh Samui during November and the Samui Express web site is still in the throes of re-inventing itself and re-hashing old, old stories with nothing new. Samui Gazette is up and running but, bless their hearts, they do make it difficult for me to plagiarise so here is the direct link to their web site.

http://issuu.com/discoversamui/docs/edition-35-nov-16-29-2011/11

Something I have been thinking about recently is the Eastern concept of “face”. I had always assumed that to lose “Face” was a consequence of doing something wrong in the eyes of other people, or being humiliated in front of other people. It is a concept that comes up time and again when discussing eastern culture. Wikipedia has a long discussion on “Face as a sociological concept” and it is clearly not easy to define in all its facets. Respect; reputation; prestige, honour all figure in definitions but these obviously vary between the eastern concept and that as we see it in the west. Then we have “losing face” and “saving face”.

The reason I have been thinking about this is the very real issue of “why did no-one lose face over the re-surfacing of the road by Bandon Hospital?” They spent good money improving the drains, putting in new kerbs and then re-surfacing – albeit straight onto the concrete – but within weeks the road is giving way and holes are appearing and major patch work has been put in place. Now surely someone must feel responsible for this shoddy workmanship and I would have thought “lost face”. Is it the Contractor who did the work, the Civil Engineer who wrote the specification, the Project Manager who over saw the work? Or have I got this whole concept wrong? Were all the parties involved able to “gain face” with their contempories by getting away with and getting paid for shoddy work? The same has to go for the construction of the promenade around Chaweng Lake. Looked good to start with but started falling to bits within months. The street lights through part of Bangrak – promoted as a “Walking Street” they then proceeded to place the light posts in the middle of the footpath so you had to step into the road. Then they were rarely switched on, if they were half did not work and most of the fittings are missing . Has no-one “lost face” over that fiasco?

As I see it “face” is a concept used and abused according to circumstances and an individual’s inability to provide a good answer to something that they are responsible for but have screwed up. To some extent this runs parallel with the Thai concept of Kreng jai which is being aware of other people’s feelings and showing politeness, respect and consideration towards them. It is also tied in with the Thai concept of not wanting to lose face; displaying kreng jai is one way in which one person can help another save face. Do nothing that will embarrass the other person. Let them get away with shoddy workmanship because to tell them it is shoddy would make them feel bad. Basically, criticism is bad manners. I have learned to live with it and deal with it over the years and if you are going to live here in Thailand and be happy then you must too. As frustrating as it can be sometimes, I still love living here and it could be worse. I could be living in England.

The market continues to be erratic, but at least that is better than dead. Enquiries ebb and flow and there is no consistency in the range of demand. Certainly more long term rental enquiries recently but also requests for details on properties for sale has increased, although not as much as the demand from new sellers to market their properties. We have seen and heard of a number of sales being completed but without exception at heavily discounted prices and the trend remains an average 30% fall over the last 2-3 years.

If you would like to receive a copy of the full Newsletter, please email me at hbonning@kosamuiproperties.com